http://www.cs.virginia.edu/~cab6fh/PokerFinal/

The report can be found in this same directory. ]]>

When the game starts, we need to have some initial opponent model before the opponent has acted. We intend to build off of the implicit opponent model produced from CFR. Furthermore, we assume MCTS will perform poorly initially until we have a good opponent model. Therefore, we will use CFR as *our* strategy until our opponent model is suitably good, and then we can switch to MCTS.

What we are still looking for is a principled way to determine if an opponent model is “good.” We are also still deciding on what kind of opponent models are needed for MCTS. Currently, we are just planning on using something simple such as P(bet) P(fold) and P(raise) at each game step. Since a player has 4 rounds to make decisions(preflop, flop, turn, river), we just store 4*3 scalars as our opponent model. However, how many hands must we see before these probabilities are statistically significant? This question is complicated by the fact that our opponent is evolving over time as well(if they are not using a static strategy that is).

We are trying to limit the complexity of our project by initially choosing this simple opponent model; and then modifying it if it is inadequate. Furthermore, we hope to test our CFR results in a principled way, by seeing if our pre-flop predictions roughly agree with reasonable hand-tables from poker strategy guides.

]]>What do you mean by “relative ordering amount of hands”? Do you mean stacks?

]]>Sounds like you have a good start on the bot.

]]>I’m not convinced the way you are calculating hand strength against 2 opponents makes much sense. It would make more sense to me to do a 3-player roll-out to evaluate the hand strength, but sampling the distribution if it is too much to do exhaustively. The other issue to consider is that one of the players may fold before the river. Then, you could do a 2-player hand strength estimation, but this probably overestimates the value of your hand against the opponent who stayed in.

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